What is your Sales Prediction for Next Month? Here's the Steps to Calculate Forecasting

Business Performance Schematic Illustration

Business Performance Schematic Illustration


Netgenz - Business | Have a business? If you have, do you know what the predicted number of earnings from that business is for the future? The good thing is, every businessman must know a description of the acquisition of his business performance in the coming period. Whether it's in the form of some desires to be achieved or from a cursory calculation of the memory of the content.

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When a Soto trader, for example, is asked how much he sells every day, he may be able to give him an answer in a certain range of numbers. Likewise, when asked how many allotments are sold each month, the figures obtained are still estimated figures, which are usually not well documented.

However, when asked how many marketing predictions they want to get in the next month, next year, and so on, the answer may not sound so convincing. It's just a number as a wish or hope, which allows the situation to be different from reality. We hope that the marketing figures for the next month will increase, but apparently, the marketing data record does not show such a situation.

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So that every businessman actually needs to make documentation that aims to read the movement of his business performance from day today. At the same time to estimate a more suitable estimate of business performance in the future. One of the most reliable steps to predict business performance predictions such as product marketing numbers is through forecasting.

In the previous details, this matter of forecasting has been discussed several times. So there's probably no need to describe it. Here we are increasingly focused on how technical forecasting is planned and calculated to get the expected prediction results.


First Stage: Collect Data

Making forecasting modes, especially quantitative ones, cannot be separated from the data. It takes a supporting data source to be a reference for calculation.

It's not enough for a meatball seller to just guess and remember how many bowls of meatballs he sells every day to be able to know the marketing predictions for his meatballs in the future. But he had to document it, write it, record it.

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The point is to get the real marketing figures earned over the last few moments. Possibly the last 2 months, the last three months, and so on. The more data that is collected, the better advice should be to analyze the bias that the data has.


2nd Stage: Data Slope Analysis

At first glance, the marketing data record is just a series of numbers that have no meaning. However, since entering the digital age, the presence of data seems to have played an important role. Data is like gold tucked between mounds of earth in the bowels of the earth that needs to be mined, filtered, severed, and separated.

In general, the data has a certain character. I don't know if it's a transition, a flurry, a trend until it's random. Record marketing data has certain characteristics that are important for every businessman to read.

The following different data tendencies require it to be processed with different types of systems. It is calculated that forecasting for one data with certain characters is more suitable to be analyzed according to its allocation. To run this level, we can use the Microsoft Excel program as a tool to check the character of a data whether it is a trend data type or not.


3rd Stage: Choose a Forecasting System

There are quite some forecasting systems used to project future conditions. As was flicked earlier, this is largely determined by the skewness of the data being analyzed.

Data that has a transition type character and tends to be more appropriate using the Weight Moving Average (WMA) system. On the other hand, data that has a certain trend can use the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) system.

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These two forecasting systems can be called the simplest system to calculate marketing number predictions or the like in the future. Although actually there are still quite a few other forecasting systems, by using these two systems we can see the prediction results for at least one future.

4th Stage: Calculate Forecasting

The following is a recording of monthly product marketing data for the last nine months. All of this data will be used as a reference to predict the number of product marketing in the tenth, eleventh, and so on.

What needs to be understood concerning this forecasting is that the longer the period you want to predict, the lower the level of accuracy will be. In other words, the prediction of product marketing in the tenth month is the closest. The further the achievement of predictions for guessing the eleventh time and so on, the level of accuracy will be less.

Before determining which system should be used to make forecasting predictions from existing marketing data, we first need to know the data distribution scheme. With the contribution of diagrams in the Microsoft Excel program, we can check the trend line that occurs in the data. What type of up, down, or just slightly tilted.

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If the trend line shows a schema that is moving up or down, we can assume it is a trend data type. And, if the trend line is skewed slightly, then we can categorize it as part of the erratic, transitional, or random data type.

We can use the WMA system formula if the data type includes angular, random, or transitional. If the data type tends to show a trend, then the SES system can be applied.

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The red line is a "help tool" to check whether the character of the data includes trend data or not. Say if the marketing data is trend data, then the marketing prediction result in the tenth month is 767.

If we consider the marketing data to be other than trending data, then when it is calculated using the WMA system, this result for the tenth season prediction is 769. Almost the same.

That way, the forecasting calculation to find out the marketing prediction for the tenth month can be found as many as 767 with the SES system and 769 with the WMA system. If we had to choose one of them, which one should we choose?



When comparing the level of miscalculation or error, therefore the results of calculations with the WMA system are more appropriate to be decided. Namely, the value of the tenth-month marketing prediction is 769.


Basic Tactics

Forecasting figures are still only a description of future business developments. The ups and downs of marketing predictions are not necessarily the case. Predictions that say developments are likely to be good news for businesses, only if the important attributes of a product are always properly protected.

On the other hand, predictions that say reductions are not certain are bad news as long as there are good ways to anticipate them. The key point is in the three important attributes that need to be addressed in a series of processes to produce a product.

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The 3 attributes are QCD or Quality, Cost, Delivery. High marketing numbers or desires that continue to grow without being accompanied by good product quality can affect the free fall of customer satisfaction on the integrity of a product.

When the price of the product soars is not resolved, it can also have an anticlimax effect on the predicted numbers. Likewise, when there is an inaccuracy such as loyalty, fulfillment initially will harm predictions that are predicted to soar. What more if the prediction shows some numbers that do not give satisfaction.

Prediction results that are not following the wishes may actually be replaced. Definitely by making sure the 3 attributes just woke up. And by creating new tactics to change the "game". It could be by making more innovative promo tactics, giving him limited service, and so on. Predictions applied to a business can be a powerful tool for summarizing adaptive tactics for each transition that occurs.

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